A Poorly Placed Ad Break

From the Guardian minute by minute report a few minutes ago today:

After nearly two hours of goallessness:

117 mins: Everton roll forward anew .... and ITV cut to commercials!? Eh? I said EH? Get it sorted please. [...]

118 mins: GOAL! Everton 1-0 Liverpool (Gosling 119')

118 mins: Yes, while ITV were inexplicably, unforgivably on a commercial break, Van Der Meyde scuttled down the right and floated in a cross that Gosling was allowed to take down. He scooped a dainty shot towards the top corner from eight yards and Reina can't get to it! Cue delirium at Goodison! And sackings at ITV, surely.

119 mins: Liverpool are lamping it desperately forward, to no avail. "What in the name of dear God were ITV playing at?" roars Simon Arnold and approximately 233,567 others.

120 mins: Peep! Peep! Peeeeep! It's full-time, Everton are victorious thanks to a Gosling goal that all in TV-reliant Britain missed.

Commercials? Inexplicably. Approximately. Three small typos corrected but you get the picture. Clearly not everyone did.

Campaign Project and Stock Management

To maintain effective marketing, or to run effective projects, both require constant cycles of prediction and measurement.

For example, first you measure the current one, use that to plan and predict the next one. Measure that one. And so on.

Having been through plenty of campaigns and plenty of projects, I know there are some things that I can predict well. Perhaps an odd predilection for stats helps. Of course we all get some estimates wrong, but the more we do the better we estimate. And I've done loads.

But there are some things that I cannot predict. I cannot predict share prices without insider knowledge. So I agree with what Stephen Dubner wrote on Freakonomics a while back:

Here are a couple of stock-market headlines I’d love to read one day:
“Stocks Surge, Reasons Unknown; May Be Nothing More Than the Random Fluctuation of a Complex System”
or:
“Stocks Dive: Three First-Movers Sold Hard and Then Everyone Else Inexplicably Followed”

Of course, in the second case, if the first-movers sold hard, if you believe that others will also sell hard, then you should sensibly follow.

So my own investment strategy, still holding all my boom-bought shares as they go bust one by one, now it looks very foolish indeed.

Tweeting is for birds?

From JP on January 17th: Twitter is fast becoming my personal submarine and periscope to the ocean of the World Wide Web

From Ann on January 23rd: I think this year is Twitter’s year. I think their tipping point has been reached and passed.

From Stephen Fry just yesterday: Welcome to my twitterworld


But I'm still not sure about it. Two possible reactions:

From the stereotypical new woman, enthusiastic about this new way to communicate:

I am a twitter. Sexy, fun, dietin' manhunter.

Or from the stereotypical dinosaur, a guy who doesn't believe in all this new technology:

I am a twit. Terse, XY, fundie, tin man, hunter.

The same letters in the same order, just slightly different spacing.

Just Giving Public Signals

From the generic to the specific. Invented figures. You are prompted to contribute to a good cause by a solicited group email that links to a public page showing individual amounts. You go to the site, and see just one donation there, showing £50, and the date suggests it was placed there a while ago. You know from history of similar appeals that most individual contributions tend to be smaller. So you wonder whether that first entry is discouraging subsequent ones. You genuinely want to contribute, but how much? Five options:

1. Give £50 like the first person. This further reinforces the possibly unfair suggestion that £50 is the expected going rate.

2. Give more than £50. Appeases your own conscience; but if the signals theory is correct, this may be even more likely to dissuade later small contributions.

3. Give a sum that is the usual typical contribution, say £10. This could now bring in the others who were prepared to commit that smaller figure but who didn't want to publicly set the precedent.

4. Give an intermediate sum, say £25. This might still perform the signalling function of "it's ok to contribute less" but at the same time it keeps the ballpark figure higher.

5. Do nothing, or contribute offline. May seem the easy option, but it doesn't provide any helpful signal. The charity still appears in the same position as at the start, with a single lonely contribution apparently discouraging followers.

This is not a web issue, the same question often arises where a short list of donations is passed around with any office collection.

So what did you do?

Carnival of the Godless 109

As in the skeptic games, this is a case of my own post not following my own rules. But it's probably justified occasionally - the big beasts of the blogworld like Pharyngula and Bad Astronomy rightly get plenty of traffic and plenty of publicity, but these odd carnivals are a chance for some less prominent posters to get a little more exposure. So all 19 submitted, in order of receipt:

01. If you swear upon a book of fiction
Does that excuse some faulty diction?

02. If sexuality's a choice, as you say,
When d'you decide you're not gay?

03. It still makes me wonder and chuckle
That religion makes grown adults suckle

04. You have no right to tell me what to do
Who to love and who to screw

05. Lots of loud and mad debates
Between those who take and make their fates

06. A founding father he may be
But Paine was hardly G.O.P.

07. Remember just who is the boss
The one who orders up this toss

08. Murderous dictators, he honestly said,
Are not as bad as old P-Zed

09. Pious man dies, that's a shame
Pious man saved, god's to blame

10. "Blindly follow these rules"
Orders for zealots and fools

11. We carry more hope than we should
But that's not necessarily good

12. If our bodies are so well "designed"
Then the designer who did it was blind

13. We're really not all the same
Except that we don't play that game

14. Like a snowball that's rolling downhill
The Ickefest is gathering swill

15. God may be sexy and hot
But merciful? No, he is not.

16. Oxymoron for christian nation
Simply: science education

17. Bible Magic's what he saw
He'd like to call it vjack's law

18. And to lead this godless fold
Newly ordained Rev'rend Gold

19. To end this back where we began
Obama. Wait to judge the man.

Or in more traditional exposition:

01. Mark P presents Swearing In...the Oath posted at Proud Atheists.

02. The Whited Sepulchre presents The Whited Sepulchre: Light To See By posted at The Whited Sepulchre.

03. PhillyChief presents Religion is a Tit posted at You Made Me Say It....

04. Diana Hsieh presents Duty of Sexual Restraint? posted at Politics without God.

05. Luke Muehlhauser presents 300+ Atheism vs. Theism Debates posted at Common Sense Atheism.

06. Ron Britton presents The Separation of Logic and Fundie posted at Bay of Fundie.

07. Andrew Bernardin presents God Commands: Stay in Line posted at the evolving mind.

08.. larryniven presents Catholicism: false posted at Rust Belt Philosophy.

09. Seth Manapio presents Whiskey Before Breakfast... the Blog: a little dose of god stuff posted at Whiskey Before Breakfast... the Blog.

10. Romeo Vitelli presents Brother XII posted at Providentia.

11. Greta Christina presents Is Hope Always a Good Thing? posted at Greta Christina's Blog.

12. Greta Christina presents Stupid Design: Rube Goldberg Brains and the Argument for Evolution posted at Greta Christina's Blog.

13. Hank presents Why I am not an atheist posted at Dangerous Intersection.

14. Enshoku presents David Icke vs the reptoid army: Can the cats kill the jews? posted at Enshoku's Weblog.

15. Obadiah Shoher presents God is merciful? posted at Samson Blinded.

16. vjack presents How to Defend Science Education in Your State posted at Mississippi Atheists.

17. vjack presents The Christian Bible is Magic: Introducing Vjack's Law posted at Atheist Revolution.

18. Ron Gold presents The Invisible Pink Unicorn: It's Official: I'm An Atheist Minister! posted at The Invisible Pink Unicorn.

19. Melanie Pinkert presents Religion and Politics: Making Peace with Obama's Peacemaking posted at BroadSnark.

And for the next COTG, welcome Ridger FCD.

Er. that's it.

The Paine and the President

On the night in November when Barack Obama's victory was confirmed, he quoted Abraham Lincoln and Martin Luther King, and most would see a clear line of descent from those great orators. But there was little of the soaring exultation of "Yes We Can" in Obama's first presidential speech on Tuesday. Instead, delightfully, he went back to the true founding fathers of his great nation.

In fact CNN reports that: if the speech could be said to have an animating spirit, it was that of Thomas Paine.

Ben McIntyre in the Times conveys the same message, albeit with a more informal tone: The words of a drunken, dishevelled Norfolk pamphleteer lay at the heart of the new President's message

That pamphleteer provided the title and inspiration for everything I write here.

He also provided the title and inspiration for the United States of America.

Common Sense is the way out of Crisis.

Air Bust

I said it would get personal, and it will get there gradually. First, I've mentioned regularly that I have a degree of competence in marketing technology, and once that I have a degree of competence in jet engine technology.

Consequently, topically, I was reassured to hear comparatively little bleating about the supposed "miracle" on Hudson river, and instead more emphasis on the skill and experience of the pilot and the strength of modern aircraft design, though perhaps we should also wonder who decided to develop a major airport in the middle of a densely populated urban area. But that was New York. I'm not even qualified to be a bus driver in London, though we shouldn't extrapolate from one moron to the rest of the public transport operation.

And on that note, proving that I really have left the world of serious work behind me for a while, the Carnival of the Godless is coming to these shores next week. Submit entries here.

A blog not a website

OK, the personal stuff can wait. First to clarify something from the last post. I am not going to continue to "advertise" my company website on this blog, but I am going to continue to make arguably important points here about the nature of web 2.0 and technology and social networking.

From Tamar Weinberg's best internet marketing posts of 2008, I picked up a top five (outdated) reasons why a blog is not a traditional website:

1. Blogs are dynamic, websites are not
2. Blogs encourage conversation, websites do not
3. Blogs offer RSS, websites do not
4. Blogs publish current news, websites do not
5. Blogs create the blogosphere while websites are in a way standalone islands

However, as Tad's post admits, those are no longer always true. Many authored sites, even the BBC, now encourage interactive updates to current news. But Tad provides the more subtle insight that the real difference is that the info at a blog is expected to be valid at a certain point in time while the content on a website is expected to be timeless.

That is, on a website, you expect every page to be still relevant, outdated pages to be dropped. On a blog, you expect the information on each page to be current only at the point in time that the page was published. But I have some pages on my blog that are timeless. Tad suggests removing the date from these pages. Instead, what I'll do is copy them to my website.

Advertising

Recall the Top Ten rules to which we should aspire, including speed, simplicity, etc. Rule number 8 was simply No Advertising. So, despite potential revenue, no google ads here. But I said explicitly that this blog could only ever reach 9/10 for that measure, "I lost a mark for the intrinsic self-promotion".

I still maintain that every word and every picture that we ever leave anywhere on the web becomes part of our online CV, whether we like it or not. So within this blog I still try to demonstrate creativity, experience, focus, opinion, passion, reason and a sense of humour together with some hints that I know a bit more about marketing, technology, architecture, language, statistics, semiotics, and every other subject that interests me. So obviously I agree that recruiters should be looking for people like me.

But I have reconsidered slightly in the last days. Ultimately I am a director of a small limited company that supplies consultancy services - it has its own website, but it has so far been just a placeholder rather than a sales tool. From now I think some of the more work-focused themes might start to go there (it's clearly still in development).

Which means this blog can get personal ...

Me and Warren Buffett

Five things in common?

1. I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.

2. It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

3. Our favorite holding period is forever.

4. We believe that according the name 'investors' to institutions that trade actively is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a 'romantic.'

5. Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.

Those are genuine quotes from the investing legend. I should have diversified more widely.

Interest in the Economy

Despite the significant losses documented yesterday and in earlier notes, I don't claim poverty. Particularly compared to most in my home town, I'm doing ok.

However worse times are coming. News today: The Bank of England has cut interest rates to 1.5%, the lowest level in its 315-year history, as it continues efforts to aid an economic recovery. The Bank of England is shafting us.

Manufacturers' association EEF said the move was "too timid", and that the Bank should have cut rates further. Self-serving poppycock . The reduction of interest rates is not the only weapon in the arsenal of weapons available to tackle stagnation of demand. Whatever happened to the direct fiscal stimulus? Investing in the infrastructure of the country?

There are seven times as many net savers as net borrowers in this country, though overall saving rates are overall about zero as average borrowing is about seven times average saving. But all these ridiculous cuts will do is encourage more borrowing. Madness. That is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place.

Stock Tips

I'm a big investor. No real job, no real pension, so my future income is dependent upon my investments.

Admittedly this has been done without any major research. But in principle, without even thinking about it, my basic investment strategies have broadly followed the legendary Motley Fool guidelines and the even more legendary Warren Buffett guidelines:

Even my biggest financial mistake was made in accordance with those principles, though it was also based on a stupid anecdote.

So, after Telewest, apart from a series of technology stocks, my next two big investments were solid well known retail brands with prime high street locations, I thought they were undervalued shares with excellent potential being ripe for turnaround.

One of those stocks was Woolworths.

Anybody else out there who wants to follow my financial advice?

Perspective

It's traditional to write a new year blog post. I'm not very traditional.

The big news at the moment is the Israeli assault on Gaza in apparent retaliation for the rockets that Hamas has been firing into Israel. No opinion on that here, but I think that I'm more knowledgeable on the subject than the average Brit. Even at school, I did a whole semester researching the background of the conflicts. The course was called "West Asian Studies". Clearly that's a better name than "Middle Eastern Studies".

Also from much earlier school history classes, I recall early ignorance about why Upper Egypt was shown below Lower Egypt on maps in history class. Of course it's obvious now. But because we are so used to arbitrarily seeing North at the top of maps, it confused this poor schoolboy. I know there are some novelty maps (typically Australian) that reverse the world, but actually I don't think these maps should be "novelty" at all, there should be more varieties and perspectives, then it's harder for little kids to grow up with flat earth or other biblical misconceptions.

Happy New Year (eventually)

Top five reasons to have a New Year's Day blog post:

1. These are the best places that I visited this year

2. These are the best books and films of the past year

3. These are my resolutions and predictions for the new year

4. These were my most commented posts of last year

5. I should post every day.

Actually that wasn't meant to be critical, those are all perfectly good reasons. I'd have done one too, but I've been away. Normal service to resume shortly.

Knights of the Round Table

Apart from the guy mentioned in yesterday's note and his playwriting colleagues Alan Bennett and Michael Frayn and a host of actors like Paul Scofield, another five who refused to accept a knighthood:

1. LS Lowry - painter

2. David Hockney - artist

3. Michael Faraday - chemist, experimenter, demonstrator, and the man who made electricity usable

4. Frederick Sanger - the only living double Nobel prizewinner, without his work we could not yet know the structures of basic proteins, let alone be able to sequence the human genome

5. Humphrey Lyttleton - jazz trumpeter, cartoonist, I'm Sorry I Haven't a Clue

Cricket and Life and Death

In memory of Harold Pinter who died on Christmas Eve, my top five test batsmen:

5. Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar - Needs no introduction

4. David Ivon Gower - Apparently all style and grace and elegance, played as if without a care in the world, but still England's most reliable run-getter

3. Sourav Chandidas Ganguly - India's David Gower, but also an explosive one-day batsman and an agressive inspirational captain. And he's Bengali.

2. Sir Isaac Vivian Alexander Richards - While the rest of the world complained of West Indies' fast bowler policy, Viv just swatted away bouncers from in front of his unprotected head. In an era before batsman-friendly field restrictions, he scored just as fast as he liked. Simply the best batsman I've ever seen.

1. Bradman - obviously.

Cooking Christmas Lunch

As it's festive break, please excuse a short personal post.

I rarely cook. But a recent long vacation in India (see here and here) reignited my taste buds. And I've discovered it's easy. Time-consuming and tedious, but easy. The results are excellent, even though I say so myself. Nobody else does.

My wife says it's because I have such low expectations. Because I like simple dals and tarkaris. But I do things properly, fresh spices - no pre-bought pastes, not because they are universally pricey, but because they are universally vile.

One issue is that you can only get these ingredients in "Indian" shops, not in the big supermarket that supply our basic weekly requirements. And those shops are a bit out of the way, designed for local users. Whenever we drive down, there's never anywhere to park. Problem.

Problem sorted. Tomorrow, while most of the world sits down to christmas lunch, I'll pop down then. They're always open. Thank god not everyone's a christian.

Bidding Gambling and Voting

There 's stuff in the news about "penny auctions". For example the BBC reports:

I think bidding on penny auction sites is akin to a gambling-like experience," Professor Griffiths said. "Obviously, when people are bidding again and again and again and they don't actually win the item in the end, that's very much like gambling."

However, Juha Koski from online auction site Madbid.com disagrees. "We have two experts who have given us their opinion on this. This is definitely a game of skill and would not form under any circumstances under the definition of gambling."

That was the most surprising disagreement since Madoff disagreed with proposed hedge fund regulation. Five reasons why these auctions are really lotteries:

1. The gambler pays for every "bid", each bid is essentially a non-refundable ticket

2. The final price of the item bears minimal relation to the value of the item on the open market

3. The lottery operator (or seller) gains most profit not from the winning bidder but instead from the number of bids made (or tickets bought)

4. The operators argue that entry needs significant skill. Actually I agree - in the same sense that choosing lottery numbers requires significant skill

5.Sometimes the winning price is the lowest unique bid, that essentially proves it

It's obvious. If the supposed regulators cannot work this out then they are either incompetent statistical morons or subservient slaves of the gaming industry.

[note: yes I know that choosing lottery numbers requires some "skill" to avoid picking the obvious numbers that other people are more likely to have picked]

All's Well That Starts Well

Why the guy playing lead role in a Shakespeare play is like the priest conducting a religious wedding:

1. they both need to learn their lines

2. they both dress in uncomfortable period costumes

3. they both need to be male (very few exceptions)

4. they both talk in an old form of language that nobody really uses these days

5. the better the actor, the better the performance

The Peopleweb

Really just a follow-up to the previous post. In the style of economist Tyler Cowen and his regular sentence of the day, I quote Seth Godin, author of Permission Marketing and other new marketing handbooks. From Seth's blog today:

57% of the marketers surveyed hadn't read a blog in the last year. These people are incompetent and should be fired.

Sorry, that's more than one sentence. Anyway, people have different and varied interests. Lack of interest in the web 2.0 should not be an absolute killer. Yet to put it into perspective I'll quote something obvious from Neil Perkin again , then follow with something from his last note:

It is irrelevant whether people prefer writing a blog, posting their pictures on flickr, or Facebook, or their passing thoughts on twitter, or whether they do all or any combination of the above - the point is is that they are doing it at all.

Advertising has to learn to help people do their thing with each other, rather than send messages to the world in the hope of making an impact.

Recruiters - Employ Firestarters

People should listen more than they speak. So we should read more than we write. Consequently I often find great blog posts that I likely could have written. Examples here and here. But recently I found a great blog post that I likely would have written.

Firestarters from Neil Perkin, Director of Marketing & Strategy for the commercial functions of IPC Media. It's excellent. Not only is it "I couldn't have put it better myself" but it's "exactly how I'd have put it myself".

Times are tough. The recruitment market is tough. But here are 5 reasons why employing people who blog is more important than ever:

1. They start fires. Blogging forces you to come up with new stuff. To be interesting.
2. They understand the value of connection. And are connected. To other interesting people.
3. They get digital. They appreciate the nuances and potential of social media. And how it works. Because they're doing it, not looking at it.
4. They network like crazy.
5. But most of all, because they're bothered. They have an opinion. They're not afraid to express it. They're passionate about their subject. And real passion is rare indeed.

Superb.

Recipe to build a Kolkata suburb

Ingredients:
1. A few acres of land
2. A few thousand families

Cooking time:
Sixty years

For each family:
1. Fence of your personal area with bamboo and twine, then string up a temporary shelter in the middle of it.
2. When you can afford to, replace the temporary shelter with a mud shack, keeping a small plot to grow your vegetables or tether your goat
3. When you can afford to, replace the mud shack with a fairly solid brick and plaster structure
4. As funds allow, gradually add floors to give yourself more living space
5. Tear the whole house down and build a block of flats on the same little plot, extending right to the roadside. Goodbye green space, hello modern suburb.

The Urban Village

I've been away. Top five reasons why a congested Kolkata suburb of 2008 is like a traditional English village of 1908

1. The same people have lived in the same houses for generations. Almost no geographical mobility. Everybody hangs out at the same local watering holes.

2. The local store owner lives above his shop just a couple of houses down the road from you. He stocks everything and knows the price of everything. You ask him for what you need to buy, he hands it to you. Open all hours.

3. The local bank manager lives in the same street too. New accounts and loan acceptance are based largely on personal recommendation.

4. Windows and doors are open all day, most people walk to work, kids play in the street.

5. The local rag'n'bone man comes round daily with his animal-drawn trailer to collect your reusable household waste

Sounds ideal, but there is a lot that was wrong with that world, and it is disappearing fast - because now is the age of the department store - tomorrow may be the age of the internet, that will be very different again.

Far From Feeling

I read Marginal Revolution. There found a link to the Typealyzer. It parses the text of a submitted URL and then makes an automated attempt to show the parts of the brain that were dominant during writing.

So, this is not really me, but this is my blog:

The logical and analytical type. They are especialy [sic] attuned to difficult creative and intellectual challenges and always look for something more complex to dig into. They are great at finding subtle connections between things and imagine far-reaching implications.

They enjoy working with complex things using a lot of concepts and imaginative models of reality.

So far so "good" ... but it finishes with:

Since they are not very good at seeing and understanding the needs of other people, they might come across as arrogant, impatient and insensitive to people that need some time to understand what they are talking about.

Obviously not true?

Length DID Matter

Diversion. A few of my favourite things. Guests on the classic BBC radio show Desert Island Discs are allowed to choose eight records. I know it's only a hypothetical game, but it's not called "your eight top tracks". So why don't guests choose longer tracks to maximise enjoyment? My epic list here.

1. Bat out of Hell - Meat Loaf

Possibly Jim Steinman's best known song, but as already noted here, I could have taken almost any of his works.

2. Grendel - Marillion

Not just because it is 18 minutes of the finest interplay between keyboard and guitar ever recorded, but an interesting story too, the first great epic of English literature told from the perspective of the beast rather than the traditional hero.

3. Rime of the Ancient Mariner - Iron Maiden

Obviously fine poetry, but also the epitome of the new wave of British heavy metal.

4. Kowtow - Pendragon

I first heard it live at the Marquee Club back in the days when I went to gigs. Astounding.

5. The Future Just Aint What it Used to Be - Pandora's Box

Another Jim Steinman composition, but this time the rock opera equivalent of a soulful ballad.

I'll stop here. So that still leaves three songs for another time.

Bloody Bombay Bombers

I did actually write a few words here on Wednesday evening but withheld hitting the "post" button. Methinks there was some insight there, but my gut reaction to the attack on Mumbai did not make pleasant reading. One day, when the war is over, then perhaps I'll publish it.

For now I'm going to try to think of some softer material for a few days till the dust settles and the red mist clears.

Big Apple

One of my old posts has been picked up today at the world's favourite Metrotwin site. At last. Superb.

http://blog.metrotwin.com/?p=383

Network Design

I mentioned that I did database design. From early readings of Codd and Date nearly two decades ago, have spent a professional lifetime grappling with the practical implementations of third normal form relational models and also their "modern" multidimensional variants. The process of mapping real world phenomena to basic binary patterns is to me the single most important factor in the success of any computer system, so it's no surprise that I genuinely enjoy it.

As with the central nervous system of any organism, as with the human brain, as with consciousness itself, it is the pattern of connections that defines its being and purpose - it is the topology of the neural network that determines who we are, not the physical implentation of that pattern. You could lose any nerve in your body, but if that nerve were replaced by an equivalent electrical transmitter with the same trigger and firing mechanism, then your essence would be unchanged, your personality would be unchanged, your thoughts would be unchanged. Every thought that we have is the process of creating new connections.

But as it is topology that counts, on a data model or a tube map or a nervous system, the representation of that network on a two dimensional sheet can be shown in any number of apparently different ways, but so long as the relationship of nodes to connectors is the same then the processing will be the same. It does not matter to the logic of an electrical circuit if the wires are layed out differently. However, where art meets science, it matters to me. Certain patterns of symmetry and chaos are considered more pleasing than others, possibly where those resonate with basic natural patterns. So the "look" of a data model matters - not so much as its topology, but it still matters.

So network design is a massive subject, one that can't really be summarised within brief guidelines. But top five principles of representing network design to follow shortly.

B of the Bang

Councils in the UK are often sued for frivolous, even dishonest reasons. Examples here.

But in an almost literal reversal of fortune, the makers of a supposedly dangerous sculpture this week paid over a million pounds in compensation to Manchester City Council. Story here.

Now I have noticed something similar in my own home town, and I'm wondering who I can sue. Admittedly it took many years to be constructed up to its full height, but now it is equally tall and equally threatening. Bits seem to fall off it every year. It seems to inspire strange yobbish behaviour. It's probably of foreign build - up in Scandinavia I've seen lines of similar sculptures stretching for vast distances.

Oh, it's a christmas tree.

Free Will Defined

Yes, I know that my previous note quoted Rush completely out of context, I know the lyrics actually appear to be a simple rejection of astrological and theological bullshit rather than any serious objectivist anthem, and it was certainly not written to be a justification for indecision.

But within the simplified hundred-word school-level boundaries of this blog, can I define free will? Without recourse to any Kant or Locke or Hume. Define it to be a useful phrase in a practical sense with no philosophical spin at all. Free will as it should be defined, here today.

Free will is simply an expression of the fact that nobody else can control your thoughts. Nobody else can read your mind. If only you see a coin turn to heads or tails, nobody else can tell which it was. Sure there are machines that might start to use predictive indicators such as sweat and blood flow and even general areas of brain activity to start to approximate your maniacal tendencies. But today those are expensive unreliable fakeable proxy indicators.

Nobody else can read your thoughts, let alone control them. That's it.

Schadenfreunde

See jhal. If Lewis Carroll and Douglas Adams and Stephen Fry can coin their own words, then so can I.

Without the "n", the word is a well known import from Germany. But the original carries strong negative connotations, malicious pleasure from the discomfort of others. And that is not nice.

But sometimes the others are your friends, people for whom you genuinely wish well. Yet occasionally, despite your best advice, they may make the wrong decision. Free will. No harm done, but a lesson learned. Schadenfreunde.

Free Will

This is not going to be a textbook philosophical treatise, more just the view from the hangover after a big night out.

There is an oft-quoted saying - that people regret more of the things they didn't do than the things they did do ...

but like all oft-quoted sayings, that's a load of context-specific twaddle.

Sometimes you might think that you'll regret not going somewhere - but when you later learn the fate of those who did go there, then you'll be grateful. Grateful to whom? To your own decision-making capability.

Or as noted by Neil Peart - if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

Frying Language

Oh frabjous day. I love it when "someone famous" expresses the same opinion that I've been banging on about here since the dawn of blogtime, especially when that "someone famous" is a linktastic legend. Five quotes almost randomly selected from 5000 words of pure bliss:

1. People seem to be able to find sensual and sensuous pleasure in almost anything but words these days. Words, it seems belong to other people, anyone who expresses themselves with originality, delight and verbal freshness is more likely to be mocked, distrusted or disliked than welcomed. The free and happy use of words appears to be considered elitist or pretentious.
Yes. Leave my words alone.

2. the only people who seem to bother with language in public today bother with it in quite the wrong way. They write letters to broadcasters and newspapers in which they are rude and haughty about other people’s usage and in which they show off their own superior ‘knowledge’ of how language should be. I hate that, and I particularly hate the fact that so many of these pedants assume that I’m on their side.
He's not, and I'm not.

3. There are all kinds of pedants around with more time to read and imitate Lynne Truss and John Humphrys than to write poems, love-letters, novels and stories [but] Do they ever yoke impossible words together for the sound-sex of it? ... Do they? I doubt it. They’re too farting busy sneering at a greengrocer’s less than perfect use of the apostrophe. Well sod them to Hades.
My echo - Trussed or Trust.

4. The worst of this sorry bunch of semi-educated losers are those who seem to glory in being irritated by nouns becoming verbs. How dense and deaf to language development do you have to be?
I call it Consultantspeak

5. I think what offends [us] when confronted with extremely informal, unpunctuated and haywire language is the implication of not caring that underlies it. ... But that is an issue of fitness, of suitability, it has nothing to do with correctness. ... Context, convention and circumstance are all.
Exactly. I actually said context and implied meaning were everything. Close enough.

He even recommends Steven Pinker! The whole blessay is excellent. However, Mr Fry, there is something to be said for conciseness too.

Burying Bridges

There were once-in-a-generation news headlines this week. The presidential election (RB wins). The drastic cut in interest rates (RB loses). These massive stories are a chance for political cowards to bury bad news.

That's what Boris Johnson and his gang seems to have done. For all the pre-mayoral-election talk of needing to regenerate and improve London's infrastructure, yesterday there was a little announcement that ten major capital projects have been scrapped.

Now some cuts I could understand. But one particular cancellation is just wrong. I have been driving around London for much of the last twenty years. Travel is often difficult bordering on impossible. But (in my opinion) the single worst bottleneck in the entire city is the Blackwall Tunnel.

The western stretch of the Thames has bridges every few hundred yards. Yet between the central Tower Bridge and the Essex-Kent QEII bridge, covering at least ten miles of river with high population density on both sides, there is nothing else. Well almost nothing, another ancient tunnel that has only one narrow winding lane each way, and a single unreliable ferry. But this is obviously not enough, as each of these crossings is still at full capacity. Even the costly Dartford crossing. And that approach should solve the cost conundrum. There is so much pent-up demand that any new bridge would surely pay for itself, as much as any new road anywhere in the world possibly could. It is just madness to go ahead with the massive Thames Gateway housebuilding project unless there is a corresponding Thames Gateway infrastructure project.

Three disclaimers: I cross the river frequently; I accept marginal traffic charges; and did I mention that I like bridges?

K K Konquered

There has apparently been a major election recently. You might have heard about it, it's been on the news. There is a new president on the block.

I used to live there, so I take more of an interest than much of the world. Yet I don't really have a strong opinion on this one. Without knowing the details, the new president seems a decent choice. It seems a good thing that the more internationalist more educated professional economist beat the more populist darling of the redneck community, though it was a very close race.

Yes, in Zambia, according to BBC news this week, Mr Rupiah Banda has been sworn in as president, just hours after officials said he had narrowly won Thursday's election.

Meanwhile, in America, at least, at last, there is hope.

Kitchen Space

The basic layout of the typical house has changed radically over the last couple of centuries in the western world, and over the last couple of decades in the developing east.

Take the kitchen. In the traditional English Victorian house this was way out the back, cold and unfurnished except for necessary appliances. In India, even in the new build of twenty years ago, the kitchen has even less prominence. While the living area could be elegant, light and spacious - the kitchen could be a cupboard space with barely enough opening for the smoke fumes.

Of course the reasons are obvious. The kitchen is used by the lower class, the cooks, the servants. Not for the real homeowners.

Things are changing today. When we bought our place five years ago, we chose one with a completely open plan ground floor. The kitchen is just an intrinsic part of the "living room."

Changing subject, look around your workplace. If the temporary workers are the ones sitting in the cold gloomy corners, if the engine room of your department is kept in the dark, what does that say about your organisation?

Light and Sound

Discussed at lunchtime today - the less controversial subject: I generally think people should keep their music to themselves, leakage from home or vehicle is just noise pollution.

Insight is sometimes simply finding a new relationship between old variables. So like Jessica Hagy with her Indexed cards:

The Bond Villain

I mentioned it briefly in the old world. Now, as Quantum of Solace is about to hit the screens, five reasons why we should support the James Bond villain rather than James Bond himself.

1. They are more diverse. Not just upper class Englishmen. All sorts of strange foreigners. And we like diversity.

2. They give the opponent a chance. Could easily just shoot Bond in the head, instead always give him an opportunity. Bond just coldly eliminates.

3. They inspire loyalty from vast numbers of henchmen (and women). Must be doing something right.

4. Charisma and Style. Hard to define, particularly within my strict word limit. But possibly the clearest distinction of all, the chief villains have more of it than Bond.

5. They always end up losing. And we all root for the underdog.

A Moronic Oxymoron

But let's not discuss Daylight Saving Time. Let's talk of cars and traffic ...

In some countries, particularly in the remnants of the British Empire, people drive on the left. In others, including most of continental Europe and America, people drive on the right. Which is better?

To answer the question, we need to consider the facts. Most people are right-handed. Old Roman tradition was to carry the shield with the left and the sword with the right. Most vehicles still have manual gear shifts. Most shift levers are towards the centre consoles of the vehicle. So I think the better answer can be determined. But there are many factors to consider, and arguments can be made for either side.

However, let's not have those arguments. Instead, every year, let's drive for six months on the left, then for six months on the right. Once in March and once in October we should swap everything round. That makes perfect sense.

Cheesy Break

Not my usual style of blog post, just a little incident from lunchtime yesterday:

On seeing menu item: Chilli Con Queso
Me: I like chilli, but I'll decline that one because it has cheese in it
Oz colleague: Oh, so that dish has cheese in it?
(I honestly didn't say anything at this point)
Serving lady: I don't know. (Then shouts across to kitchen area) Does this dish have cheese in it?
Answer from kitchen: No.
I gave up and went to the sandwich counter.

I still don't know if the kitchen staff were making some kind of joke there. And I mention this not to show that I know some Spanish, that was obvious, but only because after the conversation this person said "you're bound to write it up on your blog". I wasn't, but I've done it now. Back to serious stuff tomorrow.

Not Meeting Project Deadlines

A few days ago I mentioned a top five ways of working to achieve project deadlines. They were all fairly common sense, all fairly predictable, all fairly practical, but not actually the most common ways suggested. Usually we hear:

1. You only need to work smarter, not harder.

2. Have you thought of ways of improving the process to achieve the same result?

3. Have you got a plan to achieve it?

4. That is the deadline, I don't need to know any more information or hear any more excuses.

5. Just F'ing Do It

But you know what, that's all bullshit. It is bullshit because it is all blatantly obvious, there is not a single practical suggestion to help achieve the deadline. If the manager only picks up and restates deadline dates, then the manager is an administrator not a leader. It's no good saying improve the process, it's only good to actually improve the process. If people working for a manager cannot achieve their deadlines, then the manager needs to make a decision. Priorities need to be altered or new directions given - then it is leadership not administration.

For better or for purse

Last week I dropped my wallet at a market in a notorious Essex town. Five things that were in there:

1. Credit Card - I've heard that all its details may already be on sale in pubs across the land, but it would still be disconcerting to lose it.

2. Driving Licence - we don't actually need to carry this in the UK, but it's habit from my US days, and some form of Photo Id often comes in useful

3. Oyster Card - loads of free travel on the London public transport system for the lucky finder.

4. Agency access pass for the client site - sounds trivial, but it's one of the things I'd "miss" the most in the short term while corporate bureaucracy grinds away at a replacement

5. AA card. I don't have a drink problem, and wouldn't spout that quasi-religious crap even if I did, but I do think it's worth keeping roadside breakdown membership.

That leaves out various loyalty cards, cash cards and cash itself (no coins) together with random receipts. They are not in my top five.

However, despite the best efforts of the Daily Hatemail (no street is safe, thieving immigrants are everywhere) and of the Real Hustle (trust nobody, they're all out to scam you), within a few seconds a lady walked up to me and returned it. Everything still there.

There is such a thing as society.

The Editors

I was asked to provide an initial review of the first draft of a first novel. Am happy to do so and look forward to it.

However, when it comes to the editing of my own written work, my views correspond almost exactly with those of Giles Coren. Read them here, but be warned about the language.

If it appears as though I have forgotten the rules of English grammar, that I have split an infinitive or misplaced a gerund, then dammit I meant it. If I've used a word that is not in the dictionary or placed a common expression into an uncommon location, then sorry but that's just the way I speak - or to be more precise that's just the way I write. Though I do want to make things clear, concise and unambiguous, I don't feel a need to subscribe to Truss to achieve that. Yes there is a chance that I made a mistake - but most of the time, when you see a flagrant disregard for grammatical convention and standard English etiquette, then it was entirely deliberate.

Probably.

For I do also have some sympathy with his subeditors.

One Bold Act to Solve the Financial Crisis

We appear to be on the brink of global economic meltdown. The government needs to be bold and decisive. One simple Act would have these major benefits:

1. Increase financial stability.

2. Increase innovation, entrepeneurial spirit and small business development.

3. Promote equal opportunity.

4. Increase charitable donations.

5. Reduce poverty.

I've mentioned it before. Simply raise inheritance tax to 100%.

1. The government needs to get closer to balancing its books. Living people don't like being taxed. Dead people don't care.

2. People will need to earn a living, even the children of successful rich entrepreneurs cannot just sit on their arses.

3. So who does not think that aiming for equal opportunity is a good thing?

4. Even Gates and Buffett agree. Charitable donations have always been tax-exempt.

5. Charities often tend to benefit the poor. And so do higher tax revenues.

I could add a potential surge in retail sales and consumer confidence too as people decide to spend for their families now while they are still alive. And a huge immediate boost for solicitors and will writers. But that's short term. I'm talking of one simple act to provide a long term radical overhaul to the entire national economy.

Meeting Project Deadlines

Following a comment on my note yesterday.

There are no panaceas, only checks and balances and choices, while we hope that management has enough experience and insight to choose appropriately. By the way, insight and lateral thinking to me are just the identification of hidden variables, but that's another subject.

Anyway, no miracles, but these are five genuine ways to achieve deadlines, all that I have actually experienced.

1. Have everyone work ridiculous hours. Not just long hours, stupid hours. Say 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. actually in the office every day. Including weekends. And not just at launch time, but for month after month after month. But it was Wall Street.

2. Rent more equipment. At the same office as above, the client had a splendid approach to hardware issues. PC not working or running too slowly? Phone IT support pointing out that you are losing thousands of dollars in productivity and potential lost trades … and within an hour you could get a completely brand new one set up and running at your desk.

3. Recruit more short term staff. In the early 1990's I worked on a big government project, and the deadline was completely immovable because of legislative commitments. But because the wider economy was struggling, no shortage of skilled resource elsewhere, so a constantly growing team.

4. Shiftwork. At a utility company, where it was hard to persuade people and unions to work extended hours, and there was not enough flexibility to hire more PCs and desks. So we had one set of developers working 6 a.m. to 3 p.m. and another working from 2 p.m. to 10 p.m. Deliberately an hour of overlap for "handover" but that hour was chaos, remember not enough PCs and desks.

5. Compromise quality. I deliberately wrote that to sound harsh, but it is inevitable. Where you cannot grow the team or squeeze more out of the team or extend the deadline or change the specified deliverable, then "something" can usually be delivered on time, but that something will not match all of the prior expectations. Tough.

Outlook Rules

We have already had the Top Five Spreadsheet Rules and Top Five Powerpoint Rules, and today I received an email suggesting that there should be only five Outlook rules for managing your email.

However, as you should know, I don't put stuff up here without adding some personal slant to it, so I suggest the five rules could be re-written as a few simple words that Dovetail (Alliterate).

So, Five Rules for your Email InBox:

1. Do (Action)
2. Defer (Adjourn)
3. Delegate (Allocate)
4. Direct (Answer)
5. Delete (Avoid)

All your email drops into one of those five categories. Empty Inbox. Clean Mind. But still a big old tasklist.

The Financial Times

Compared to most people in the western world, here are five types of people who are so far almost unaffected by the credit crunch:

1. Self-sufficient smallholders

2. People with rich relatives or inherited wealth

3. People with secure jobs

4. People with final salary pension schemes

5. Lottery winners

None of those apply to me.

Compared to most people in the western world, I am so far almost unaffected by the credit crunch.

My Most Embarrassing Moment

Celebrity interviews often ask that. I am no celebrity, but I do comment on the pathetic banality of celebrity interviews.

I was at a sports centre where we played five-a-side football. After the game I took off my kit and glasses, picked up my towel and stepped out of the changing room which had one door leading out to the shower area and another back out to the gym's reception. Obviously (because otherwise I would not be writing this) I stepped through the wrong door.

It's perfectly true, as a few colleagues from the football team and a slightly shocked receptionist can testify. But it was not really embarrassing, even at the time, it was just funny. However it is one of those anecdotes that is easy to regurgitate if ever asked to "reveal your most embarrassing moment".

Actually real embarrassment is when you simply say slightly the wrong thing in a social situation, the premise of the best British comedy of the decade. Real embarrassment is not when you make an honest mistake, it is when you do accidentally reveal a personal prejudice. But you don't admit to those.

Diversity (again)

I like it.

1. I like it that there are people like Sir David Attenborough who talk about the wonder of the natural world while casually throwing out metaphors such as "creatures perfectly designed for their environments".

2. I like it that there are people like Hemant Mehta who carefully prod the religions of the world, gently deconstructing outdated traditions with humour and civility.

3. I like it that there are people like AC Grayling who debate seriously with the pious, carefully dissecting their tired old ethical and moral arguments.

4. I like it that there are people like Richard Dawkins who respect religion enough to simply hold religious ideas to the same scrutiny and evaluation as any other transmitted ideas.

5. And I like it that there are people like Charlie Brooker who simply say that those who believe in superstitious nonsense are idiots or deluded fools.

That's diverse.

Powerpoint Rules

There is only one rule actually.

But first, my top five spreadsheet rules were noted here earlier, and I was going to follow with similar principles of Powerpoint design. However it looks like Seth Godin has just done it. He actually lists nine, but I'll quote five of them below (with some slight paraphrasing):

1. Keep it short. Ten minutes. The rest of your time should be answering questions raised in those ten minutes.

2. Do not let people to take notes. I don't mean tell them to stop writing, I mean they should come away with a crammed mind, not a crammed notebook.

3. Cut down the words. Words belong in memos (and blogs). Powerpoint is for one big picture.

4. Be clear what it is that you are selling. It might be an idea, or a budget, but it's still selling. If, at the end, I don't know what you're selling, you've failed.

5. Don't use Powerpoint at all. I do like to start with a clean whiteboard, then gradually build up a flowchart.

So I can simplify all those steps into just one rule. If the subject matter allows it, to cover your entire presentation, build precisely one slide. That's all.

Those are not just random blogwords, I actually try to follow that rule when presenting. Most of you do not.

Question to David Cameron (or John McCain)

Do you believe in meritocracy, that every child and every adult should have equal opportunity to make the most of their ability and work without discrimination

Or

Do you believe that certain children and certain adults should have a privileged start in life, for example with the most productive and most valued resources allocated forever to the descendants of those who acquired them?

It's a very simple question. But those two options are exclusive. What do you choose?

(there is a third option, that everybody gets an equal share regardless of ability and work, but I don't expect any politician to ever suggest that)

Social Media in 33 words

Neil Perkin asks: I'd love to know in one sentence - what is your maxim for how best to engage and facilitate an online community?

Within 3 hours he had 17 responses from agency digital strategy leaders, media researchers, account planners, media owners, creatives, and some of the most renowned thinkers on social media strategy. But not from me.

And a slightly broader question, could I sum up the whole principle and regulation of online communities in just one sentence? Like this blog itself, the answer goes back to Common Sense:

"An online community is produced by our wants, and censorship of that community by our wickedness; the former promotes our happiness positively by uniting our affections, the latter negatively by restraining our vices."

That is an update of the very first published paragraph of Tom Paine in 1776. Still true today.

Absolute Drivel

Virgin Radio changed its name yesterday. I used to listen to it in the morning when Pete and Geoff did the breakfast show, then a cock took over and today I am back with the BBC. Yes I know that Geoff is back on evening drivetime now, but they've lost my goodwill.

The new name is Absolute Radio. It was an absolutely obvious choice, especially considering that the company who bought the franchise and frequency way back in April was called "Absolute Radio". So I found the recent hype about "you the listener will be the first to know the new name, text xxxx to yyyy to get the news first" to be absolutely pathetic.

The other reason that the name is absolutely predictable is due to the rise in digital radio. Once upon a time we tuned to a particular frequency. Or in a new area, we searched by frequency. Increasingly today we search by name. Alphabetically.

I'm going to rename this site to "Aaah so that's the way to the top of the blogroll".

Moore Questions for Sherry Jones

There was a firebombing in Central London a few days ago, a terrorist incident, albeit one on a small scale. But there was not much in the news about it. That's why I refer to it here. Perhaps reporters and editors are too scared to report it. They should be.

The house attacked was that of Martin Rynja, and his company was considering publication of the novel The Jewel of Medina by the author Sherry Jones, who I have mentioned before. After the attack, and the usual bunch of religious "scholars" jumping onto the fiery bandwagon, it would not surprise me if Martin was intimidated into withdrawing publication. The terrorists will win.

It is not only a perceived insult to an imaginary deity that is being suppressed here, it is the asking of questions. The book may well present a sympathetic picture of the child's relationship to the prophet, or it may not. But as with any other aspect of history, can't we examine it, research it, picture it, question it?

Which actions of ancient leaders are role models for appropriate behaviour for today? What constitutes child abuse? Why do some people believe that entire chapters of particular books are literally true? If someone claims to receive the ultimate word of God, why should we believe him?

Those were just questions. But what are the answers?

Big Decisions

Thoughts of a colleague who is a mid-level manager at the client:

Despite earning those huge salaries for doing so, despite the oft-quoted pretence that it is tough at the top, actually it is easy to drastically reduce losses and consequently earn big bonuses. You simply close the loss making operations. It might require a degree of heartlessness and loss of popularity with those whose jobs you remove, there are obviously short term transaction costs that need to be written off, but basically it is still "easy".

What is "difficult" is to use all your existing resources and to increase their value. To provide leadership and direction to get more from the team. It's another way to increase profit, but it's much harder.

But what gets the big promotion and big salary and big bonus in the quickest time? Obvious really.

Not my words, but I wouldn't write it here unless I at least partially agree.

My Biggest Mistake

(financial)

Recall the days of the great boom in technology shares in the late 1990's. When companies like Yahoo and Amazon and eBay and a thousand other internet start-ups were soaring in value. In England companies like Freeserve and Easynet and FriendsReunited were setting the pace.

I was very much part of the early internet wave, my work was new media marketing, and I can honestly say that I predicted the prevalence of peer-to-peer sales models and web 2.0 long before the world caught up. But, on investment, I thought I'd play safe. Not so safe as to stay out of the sector entirely, but I could see a basic truth that still holds true; out of every ten start-ups only one or two will prosper, and that is as true in the brave new internet world as in the old material world. But it was not obvious who would be the next big thing, it never is. Even though I could predict the overall rise of social media, I could not predict the rise of particular social media companies.

So I recalled an anecdote - at the time of the California gold rush, a few miners struck lucky, most did not - but the ones who really made money were the guys who sold the spades.

And I recognised the need for a high capacity infrastructure for all this new communication. If I'd still been in America then I might have invested in Cisco Systems, but being in England, I invested in Telewest. In my mind it was easy to replicate websites, but it was hard to replicate thousands of miles of cable already embedded in people's streets. So I bought lots of shares. My life savings. My pension. I thought it was playing safe, buying spades not mines.

Within a few years, shares that had been bought above 250 pence were basically worthless. Like my pension fund. The company was taken over by NTL and then by Virgin Media. My stock was bought out for peanuts. Now, cable is doing well. Then, I was wiped out.

Which brings us to the present difficulties in the global financial system. Even shortly before the share price crashed, the directors and chief executives of Telewest were pulling out huge salaries and bonuses. One day perhaps we will find out the true extent of their complicity. One day perhaps my portfolio will recover.

Moral of the story: Research properly, never base your entire financial strategy on an anecdote.

In Praise of Brian

Not the messiah, obviously.

Question: Who links:

The best American novelist of the 19th century. Quotes here.

The best action series of the 20th century. Covered here.

The best fantasy movie of all time. Extolled here.

Answer:

Brian Clemens. Creator and main scriptwriter of The Professionals. Directly related to Mark Twain. Went on to write the first sequel to Highlander. Yes, I said sequel, everyone sometimes produces poo.

Rob 'n' Plunder 'n' Sink t' Ship

Yesterday was International Talk Like A Pirate Day.

On Wall Street, every day is International Behave Like a Pirate Day.

The embattled company paid out $US5.7 billion in bonuses in 2007 alone, with senior executives including CEO Dick Fund receiving the biggest payments.

It really said "Dick Fund" - that's not funny, those were our funds they were dicking around with. Actually, Lehman CEO Richard Fuld was awarded a $22 million bonus for 2007. Now shareholders like me have been wiped out.

None of that will matter to Fuld's personal bottom line. Though he is declining a bonus this year, it appears as though his financial cushion is substantial.

That's the main point. They've already raided the ship, now they don't care if it sinks.

But I'm a compassionate guy, I am very glad that Richard Fuld is alive and well. Honestly. Because if he had died or become disabled, Fuld's payoff would have been $434.7 million.

According to lawyer Ben Phi:
If Lehman's executives were frantically redistributing the company's wealth to themselves when the company was in trouble, then they'd clearly have a case to answer
If?

Economic Opinion

It's now common news that Scott Adams, yes the Dilbert guy, got so sick of the inane blathering and vindictive name-calling of the US presidential campaigns that he funded and published a survey of 500 prominent economists in order to try to get a more unbiased opinion. Or perhaps to put it another way, he seemed to believe that people needed to know who economic experts considered would have the best economic policy.

Results are common knowledge now: a considerable majority favour Obama over McCain. But I have two comments on the spin placed upon this. Firstly, look at the wording of the press release:

The economists in the survey favor Obama on 11 of the top 13 issues. But keep in mind that 48% are Democrats and only 17% are Republicans. Among Independents, things are less clear, with 54% thinking that in the long run there would either be no difference between the candidates or McCain would do better.

The text above merges the undecided with the McCain camp to show a majority there. Yet among Independents, an actual majority favour Obama's policies over McCain's.

Secondly, the fact that more of the randomly selected economists were Democrats than Republicans might suggest to some people that the survey was implicitly flawed. Those people are wrong. The survey was not meant to reflect opinion but it was meant to reflect real economists' opinions, without an artificially enforced 50:50 "balance". Remember: if the facts have a liberal bias, pointing them out is excessively partisan

And regardless of economic facts, most people seem to vote based on uneconomic "values" anyway.

Stimulating the MPG-spot

The opening line of a recent high profile article, you'll probably have seen these results elsewhere too:

A study commissioned by a phallically named insurance company proves beyond all doubt that the unbridled roar of an Italian supercar turns women on but the soft purr of a fuel-efficient econobox doesn't stimulate anyone's MPG-spot.

It's from a respected source, Wired. It specifically says "proves beyond all doubt".

David Moxon subjected 40 men and women to the sounds of a Maserati, Lamborghini and Ferrari, then measured the amount of testosterone in their saliva. He found everyone had higher levels of the stuff -- a measure of their arousal -- after hearing the revving exotics, but the amount the women had was off the charts.

According to a woman who actually read the study: "Testosterone increases in a number of situations besides arousal. For example, when a person is feeling aggressive, their testosterone goes up. I don't know about anyone else, but loud engine noises annoy the crap out of me. So were the people with higher testosterone levels fantasizing about sex in the greedmobiles or were they fantasizing about taking a sledgehammer and beating them into little, tiny, noiseless pieces?"

The study was commissioned by the ultra-exclusive British insurer Hiscox (we swear we're not making this up), which was curious to know how people respond to high-end luxury cars.

The research was funded by a company that specialises in high performance vehicles. If the results encourage more people to buy small volkswagens then less revenue for the insurer. If it appears to encourage high performance sales, even slightly, then potential win for the study sponsor. It's about the most prejudiced sponsor you could imagine. It's like a study funded by a vitamin pill salesman suggesting that people who take vitamin pills are more healthy.

"We knew owners of luxury cars felt a connection with the sound of their vehicles," says Steve Langan, managing director of the insurance company. "We have now scientifically proven the physical attraction people feel when it comes to cars."

Scientifically proven? Bullshit.