If programme 1 performs better than programme 2 in a first phase, with a significantly higher response rate, and if programme 1 also performs better than programme 2 in a second phase, - then that does NOT necessarily mean that programme 1 has performed better than programme 2 overall. Even if programme 1 "wins" subsequent phases.
Nothing to do with creative or external factors, just really simple maths. Hence common sense.
But most people seem to understand this better when related to football than to marketing. With my invented numbers:
Easy.
I just need to recognise, manage and control this effect in real campaigns every single day.
3 comments:
I still don't get it ... D'oh!
Correction - it's not common sense, it's a paradox. It's contradictory to common sense
Simple maths is always common sense :)
It only appeared like a paradox in this example because the net result switched direction. We see the effect all the time - though usually it doesn't "reverse" the final result but it does "distort" the final result.
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